Checking In: The State of the House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Elections

With exactly two weeks to go, now is the ideal time to revisit my overview of the major Congressional and gubernatorial races from back in September (the original pieces can be found here, here, and here). Thirty-four Senators are up for reelection or are retiring, along with twelve governors and all 435 members of the House—so in the interest of space, I’ll only spend time on those races where something fundamental has changed since the original assessment.

The House: Not many individual races seem to have shifted significantly in the past two months, but there is a growing perception among Democrats that they are, if still unlikely to win back control of the House, at least better positioned than they were even one month ago. Three orange guesses as to why.

As in September, Democrats look likely to pick up several seats. And as in September, no particularly well-known members look likely to lose their races—although longstanding incumbents like John Mica in Florida and Freedom Caucus member Scott Garrett in New Jersey are struggling more than expected. Again, three guesses why.

The Senate: Back in September, I listed five races that I viewed as the most competitive in the country (Nevada, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire); along with five that had the potential to join their ranks should circumstances change (meaning Democratic improvements in North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri, and Republican improvements in Illinois and Wisconsin). Since then, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania have remained virtually unchanged, with the margins for all three in the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages less than two points. In Ohio, Rob Portman is now leading consistently by double digits, and Democrats seem to have all but given up on the race. And in Florida, national Democrats also seem to have given up on the Senate seat and begun focusing on the presidential race, as Rubio has also consistently led in the polls, albeit by a smaller margin—although the past several surveys have also shown his lead shrinking somewhat. Whether that trend continues through Election Day remains to be seen, although it would still be a massive shock if he actually lost.

Of the five sleeper races, Arizona looks to be out of reach for Democrats, as John McCain continues to put it away despite Trump falling behind Clinton in the normally red state. The last public poll had McCain leading his Democratic opponent by sixteen points. Missouri and North Carolina, on the other hand, have only gotten closer in the past two months, with surveys in both states showing races that are statistically tied. Trump runs about even with Mitt Romney’s 2012 showing in Missouri, but about four points behind Romney in North Carolina, and behind Senator Richard Burr by the same amount—implying that Burr would likely be doing at least marginally better with another candidate at the top of the ticket.

Another race has become much more competitive since early September, as former Senator Evan Bayh made a late announcement over the summer that he would try to reclaim his old Indiana Senate seat for the Democrats. With Republicans defending an open seat with a candidate who has never before held statewide office, against a former Senator who has strong name recognition in the state, Indiana could be another state that determines the balance of power in the Senate. Bayh has held a fairly consistent polling lead, although it has fluctuated between one and seven points in just the past month, and persistent charges that he hasn’t truly lived in the state for years make come back to cost him in the end.

So, overall, control of the Senate could tip either way, although at this point a slim Democratic majority looks most likely.

Governors: As far as general race ratings, little has changed over the past two months. Democrats are still certain to hold Delaware; Republicans, North Dakota and Utah. Missouri, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington have all been polled fairly recently, and all continue to display similar results: a small Democratic lead in Missouri; larger, but still surmountable, Democratic leads in Oregon and Washington; and extremely tight races in North Carolina and New Hampshire. There have now been several polls conducted of Indiana since Mike Pence was chosen as Trump’s running mate and was replaced as the Republican nominee for governor, enough to show that John Gregg, the Democratic nominee, has benefitted the most from the change. He has led by twelve and five points, respectively, in the last two polls, although the race could still tighten.

Unfortunately, because of the focus on the presidential and Senate races, only one gubernatorial poll has been conducted in Vermont since September, and none at all in Montana or West Virginia. That single poll showed the Republican nominee ahead by one point, seeming to imply that my prediction that the race could be close is accurate. But a single poll is nearly meaningless without corroboration—and there is still no data to show whether there are similarly tight races in West Virginia and Montana. With the attention of the major pollsters fixed on the Senate and gubernatorial races, unfortunately, it looks like the first hard indications will come on Election Night itself.