November Outlook (Part 3): The Governors

This is part three of a three-part series examining the 2016 Congressional and gubernatorial elections. For Part 1, go here. For Part 2, go here.

The twelve gubernatorial races, as usual, are the forgotten races of this presidential election. Unlike both the presidential race—America’s only true national election—and the races for House and Senate seats, which, though held within specific jurisdictions, have at least an indirect effect on the direction of the country as a whole, elections for governor are truly local. Furthermore, as the vast majority of gubernatorial races are held during midterm elections, those elections held in the shadow of the presidential contest often go nearly unnoticed by the national media.

Nevertheless, winners of the gubernatorial elections have just as much—if not more—of an influence over Americans’ everyday lives, particularly should the federal government begin to move toward the original, federalist model of the Constitution. And even in these truly local races, the effects of national debates can be seen, this year more than ever.

As generally happens in gubernatorial and other local races, both parties’ nominees are competitive in states not being seriously contested at the national level, and only three states can be considered safe for either party: Delaware, where Democratic nominee John Carney looks certain to succeed term-limited Governor Jack Markell; North Dakota, where state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem will succeed retiring Governor Jack Dalrymple; and Utah, where incumbent Gary Herbert is leading the Democratic nominee by an average of thirty points in polls.

That leaves nine states where the race for governor is either being actively contested, or where there is potential for an upset, based on individual candidate strength, a state’s overall partisan lean, or another factor. I’ll briefly summarize each of these below.

Missouri: With most polling resources being focused on the presidential and Senate races, there hasn’t been much data for any of the gubernatorial elections, but the most recent polling in Missouri seems to give Democratic nominee Chris Koster an edge over Republican Eric Greitens. The state has leaned Republican over the last decade, especially at the presidential level, but the closeness of the presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial contests in Missouri this year makes it an open question whether that trend is reversing, or if this is yet more evidence of the harm Donald Trump does to down-ballot Republican candidacies.

New Hampshire: A toss-up, pure and simple. An open seat in a swing state, this could go either way, especially since New Hampshire is the only state to have not yet held primaries. But if the polls are right and Hillary Clinton wins the state by a large margin, she could have a large coattail effect for the Democratic nominee.

Vermont: This should be an easy win for Sue Minter, the Democratic nominee, but just two years ago the incumbent Democratic governor won reelection with only 1.2% of the vote, narrowly beating his Republican opponent in one of the bluest states in the nation and likely contributing to his decision not to run for another term. That stunningly slim margin may have been unique to those candidates and that year, but Vermont—like many other states—has shown a willingness to vote for parties at the local level they would never support for Congress or the Presidency.

West Virginia: Yet another state that enjoys voting for different parties for state and federal office. Democratic nominee Jim Justice currently holds a small but stable polling lead over his Republican opponent, although in this case two factors may work in the Republican’s favor—the rapid trend away from Democrats in the state, over just the past decade; and, ironically, the presence of Donald Trump on the ticket, who is popular in the state and could create a coattail effect for Republican Bill Cole even should Trump lose nationally.

Indiana: This race was always going to be close, with Governor Mike Pence’s narrow victory in 2012 and tepid approval ratings. The Democrats renominated the man who kept the race so close in 2012, John Gregg, but Pence’s withdrawal from the race following his nomination as Vice President, and his replacement on the ballot by Eric Holcomb, complicates things even more. The polling currently indicates a tossup.

Oregon: Another close race, according to the latest polls. This is actually a special election, following Governor John Kitzhaber’s resignation in 2015, just three months after winning reelection. He won that race by five points, and his initial election in 2010 by just two points, increasing the likelihood of another close race this time around. Current Democratic governor Kate Brown will likely pull off a win, due to Oregon’s status as a blue state, Hillary Clinton’s place at the top of the ticket, and the talent of many Oregon Republicans for losing winnable elections, but it should end up being close.

Montana: There’s no current polling of Montana, so how the race stands now is anyone’s guess. But incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is seeking reelection in a red state, and that fact by itself makes the road for him more difficult. Add the fact that he won office in 2012 by just one percentage point, and it’s probable that this will be another close race—although the Republican nominee, businessman and activist Greg Gianfonte, was selected after several high-profile officials passed on the race, and Bullock will likely pull out a win in the end.

Washington: Incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee currently has a small but stable lead over Republican Bill Bryant, although several close statewide elections over the past few years—including Inslee’s own election in 2012—have proven that Democrats should take nothing for granted. Still, Inslee will likely succeed in winning another term.

North Carolina: Easily the most competitive, and most talked-about, gubernatorial race in the country this year, the lead has fluctuated for months. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee and state Attorney General, has led Governor Pat McCrory in the past five polls, although most of those leads have been within the margin of error. This is also the one gubernatorial race featuring a candidate who has shown himself to be a man of deep conservative principle, repeatedly standing up for policies he believed in even as others warned of a political price. Hopefully McCrory will emerge victorious to continue steering the state in a conservative direction.

So, to sum up: Most incumbents running for reelection, with the exception of McCrory, look likely to keep their jobs, although the margins in many of those elections will likely be a little too close for comfort. The rest of the races feature a variety of candidates little-known nationally, who will likely do little to change their states in any substantive way. A few governor’s mansions could flip parties, changing the national tally, although Republicans will almost certainly keep their historic majority.

Yet again a case of retaining the status quo, regardless of many individual outcomes—except for the election in North Carolina, a race featuring strong ideological contrasts in a season where such contests are exceedingly rare.