The end of Labor Day marks the
traditional beginning of general election campaigning—news to anyone who’s been
watching the campaign dominate the daily headlines for months. Still, with
state-level primaries nearly complete and two months until Election Day, now is
as good a time as any to look at where the races for governor, Senate, and
House of Representatives stand—races that get far less media attention, but are
just as important as the presidential election in shaping the next four years.
Today I’ll give an overview of the House elections, with installments on the
Senate, as well as this year’s twelve gubernatorial races, coming later this
week.
The short version: Regardless of who
wins the presidency, Republicans (as of now) look likely to keep the House, but
this has not been a good year for conservatives, anywhere on the ballot. Just
two non-incumbents with widespread conservative backing, Jim Banks in Indiana’s
Third District and Warren Davidson in Ohio’s Eight District, won their
primaries. Davidson’s victory in a special election was particularly sweet, as
he now holds John Boehner’s old seat and upon taking office promptly joined the
Freedom Caucus, the group largely responsible for Boehner’s resignation.
Still, solid conservative challengers
lost primaries for House seats in Florida and Georgia, and Tim Huelskamp, a
solid conservative incumbent, lost his primary to an establishment-backed
challenger. Meanwhile, several other principled incumbents, most notably Rod
Blum in Iowa’s First, face difficult general elections.
The more comforting news is that many
other conservative congressmen look all but assured of winning another term,
including the vast majority of Freedom Caucus members. The most likely scenario
(again, as of right now) is basically a status quo election in the House, with
Republicans retaining control, although probably losing a few states from an
historically large majority, and the number of conservative members holding
steady. Of course if Trump begins tanking even more, that outlook could quickly
sour.
The major disappointment for 2016, then,
isn’t so much a dramatic loss in the number of seats held by either Republicans
or tried-and-true conservatives, as much as it is a failure to live up to
expectations. This was supposed to be the year when a large batch of energetic
new Congressional recruits would join forces with a constitutional conservative
presidential ticket to shake up Washington. Keeping the status quo for another
two years is by no means the worst possible outcome, but it—coupled with the
loss of Rep. Huelskamp—is yet another disappointment in a year already full of
them.
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