My Thoughts on Last Night's Debate

Unlike the first debate, in which Trump was blown out of the water, you could tell that he had done at least a little debate prep before last night. He was prepared for the questions about the leaked tape at the beginning (and of course there was no excuse for him not to be prepared). But he was also prepared for the rest of the debate, at least somewhat. He doubtlessly did better this time, to the point where, unlike in the first debate, it’s more difficult to say objectively who won. I think Clinton had the upper hand overall, but it was close.

Regardless, there were at least two points where Trump hurt himself. We’ll get a better sense of how badly in the coming days.

The first came in the opening minutes, when Trump was being questioned about his comments about women on the leaked tapes. He apologized, but at the same time defended himself, saying it was just “locker room talk”. Bad, but not unexpected. Whether it will be enough to stop more Republicans from jumping ship remains to be seen.

But then Anderson Cooper repeatedly asked Trump whether he had ever engaged in actions mirroring his words—whether he had ever “grabbed women by the p----.” Trump at first ignored the question entirely, and then finally said, “No, of course not,” dismissively, and continued with his original train of thought.

That response will hurt him, with both voters and elected officials wondering whether they should rescind their endorsements. Seeming to not want to even answer what should be such an easy question will create doubts. Was his denial sincere? Did he actually do those things?

The second point came when Trump, discussing Russia and Syria, said that he hadn’t talked to Mike Pence about the issue, and disagreed with his running mate’s stated position—i.e., the position opposing dictators.

There are rumors that Pence is livid about the snub, as he has a right to be, but the bigger problem may be with those Republicans still on the fence about repudiating Trump. Pence was chosen in large part to reassure Republicans, to send a signal that Trump was surrounding himself with conservative advisors who could help him. Many Republicans are supporting Trump solely because of Pence’s place on the ticket. An open admission that Trump is actively ignoring the man who was supposed to be his most important hire and advisor is not going to sit well with a lot of people.

To be sure, Clinton had bad moments too (especially her comparison of herself to Abraham Lincoln), but overall they were not huge game-changers. But Trump’s snub of Mike Pence, and especially his lack of anything resembling sincere remorse, will come back to hurt him. The battle was close, but the election is still on track to be a resounding Clinton victory.