First for the retrospective: This week
marks one year since Donald Trump announced his 2016 presidential campaign. In
the first poll
conducted entirely after his formal campaign launch, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump was at
1%. Ted Cruz and John Kasich, his final two opponents, were at 4% and 1%
respectively, and Jeb Bush was leading the field by five points. What a
difference a year makes.
Since then I’ve noticed a few things
about Trump supporters (by this I mean those who supported him in the primary).
Not the kind on TV or giving interviews, but real, ordinary people I’ve known
for long before June 14, 2015. And there are a few things they all have in
common.
Many of them are older, most over fifty.
Among those older voters, there is actually a pretty even split between men and
women, but the Trump voters under fifty are entirely male—I don’t know any
women under fifty who supported Trump before he clinched the nomination. Again,
this may not be true of all Trump supporters, but it is of those I know
personally.
But more important than demographics is
general voter attitude. I would describe all of these people as conservative,
but they generally acknowledge Trump is not. This doesn’t seem to bother them,
however—one describes Trump as a “change agent”, and the others generally agree
with that description, seeing him as a convenient vehicle for change. They are
also angry with Republicans, Congress, and government in general, which ties
back to the idea of Trump as a “change agent”. When I worked, until recently,
in a DC Congressional office, the letters and phone calls we received that
mentioned the presidential race fit the same profile—they all described their
anger over various issues, and concluded by saying, “This is why Donald Trump
is doing so well.” And I believe them.
The question remains, however, just what
kind of change Donald Trump will bring. I think many of those who supported him
during the primary will be sorely disappointed as far as 1) how much change he
actually intends to bring, and 2) whether what he does bring is the sort many
of his followers are hoping and voting for.
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