If Trump Wins, The Conservative Movement is Finished

Win or lose, Donald Trump has already done significant damage to the conservative movement, damage that will take years to fully repair. Though Trump himself is about as conservative as Hillary Clinton, the perception of him as a conservative—stemming from a multitude of factors, including his rough fit as a caricature of what the Left imagines a conservative to be; his soon-to-be-ratified status as the leader of the Republican Party, America’s major conservative party; and an embrace by many erstwhile conservative leaders such as Sean Hannity—will be a perception difficult to erase from the American public consciousness. That factor alone will do harm to conservative causes, making supporters more wary of openly pushing for certain policies for fear of being painted as “another Trump”, and in turn making the public more skeptical of any policies bearing even a whiff of Trumpism, or of the party that nominated him.

But this harm, with a Trump loss, can be overcome in time. Public perceptions will fade, aided by an aggressive outreach campaign orchestrated by Republicans and outside conservative groups. By the time the 2020 presidential campaign begins in earnest, the stage will once again be set for a conservative Republican nominee and eventual president, perhaps Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Ben Sasse. A Donald Trump 2020 run in this scenario, when the failed candidate will be 74 and have to answer for a 2016 defeat of epic proportions, is unlikely to say the least.

What will be far more devastating to the conservative movement in the long run is a Trump victory in 2016. As I’ve stated previously, I believe that a Trump presidency will not be substantially different from a second Clinton presidency, particularly with regard to domestic policy objectives. The crucial difference will be that with a Clinton presidency, Republicans will be able to unite almost unanimously with each other and with outside conservative groups to defeat liberal goals, and even in defeat be united in opposition, as we’ve seen over the past eight years, from cap-and-trade and Obamacare on.

With a Trump presidency, meanwhile, the GOP and independent conservative groups and individuals will be badly split between loyalty to party, principle, and self-interest. Every liberal, wrongheaded, and constitutionally suspect proposal to come out of a Trump White House and before Congress, whether it be changes to libel laws, a new assault-weapons ban and restricting gun sales to those on the terror watchlist, or a single-payer healthcare system, will cause deep rifts between members and organizations. Do they support the proposals of a Republican president, or oppose liberal proposals at odds with many of the central tenets of the Republican platform? The Bush years, with their excessive spending and bailouts, led to a soul-searching among conservatives and many in the GOP. That period will be nothing compared to what consequences a Trump presidency could have for the conservative agenda, the Republican Party, and ultimately the country. It could easily take decades for all three to recover.

A Clinton presidency will result in terrible policies, and a unification of the Right against those policies. A Trump presidency will result in terrible policies and further splintering of the Right in response.