Memo to North Korea: Time To Get Real

North Korea has long been known as a strange blend of rogue nation and true national security threat, driven largely by its aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons, combined with an almost comedic level of propaganda denouncing the West and lauding its own “Dear Leader”, Kim Jong Un. But the past few weeks have seen an unusual amount of attention focused on North Korea, with the nation conducting more and more missile launches and Vice President Mike Pence promising that the United States is tired of using the same failed playbook to get North Korea to stop pursuing WMD’s. “The sword stands ready,” Pence said yesterday, speaking to U.S. sailors stationed off the Korean peninsula.

There will be no more red lines, of the sort President Obama so infamously drew in Syria. No more one-sided pleas for negotiation. Peace should always be the goal, but with a ruler as dangerous and unstable as Kim Jong Un, conflict is always a possibility. America has to be ready for that very real possibility, and it looks as though Trump, guided by Mike Pence and his advisors, has accepted that fact.

North Korea has been a danger to world security for decades, and that danger only increases as time goes by. Too many nations, and too many U.S. administrations, have not taken the threat seriously enough, or have attempted to use the same failed tactics over and over again. Credit where credit is due: Trump (or his advisors) have recognized that the current Korean situation is untenable. Something has to give.

My Thoughts on Last Night's Debate

Unlike the first debate, in which Trump was blown out of the water, you could tell that he had done at least a little debate prep before last night. He was prepared for the questions about the leaked tape at the beginning (and of course there was no excuse for him not to be prepared). But he was also prepared for the rest of the debate, at least somewhat. He doubtlessly did better this time, to the point where, unlike in the first debate, it’s more difficult to say objectively who won. I think Clinton had the upper hand overall, but it was close.

Regardless, there were at least two points where Trump hurt himself. We’ll get a better sense of how badly in the coming days.

The first came in the opening minutes, when Trump was being questioned about his comments about women on the leaked tapes. He apologized, but at the same time defended himself, saying it was just “locker room talk”. Bad, but not unexpected. Whether it will be enough to stop more Republicans from jumping ship remains to be seen.

But then Anderson Cooper repeatedly asked Trump whether he had ever engaged in actions mirroring his words—whether he had ever “grabbed women by the p----.” Trump at first ignored the question entirely, and then finally said, “No, of course not,” dismissively, and continued with his original train of thought.

That response will hurt him, with both voters and elected officials wondering whether they should rescind their endorsements. Seeming to not want to even answer what should be such an easy question will create doubts. Was his denial sincere? Did he actually do those things?

The second point came when Trump, discussing Russia and Syria, said that he hadn’t talked to Mike Pence about the issue, and disagreed with his running mate’s stated position—i.e., the position opposing dictators.

There are rumors that Pence is livid about the snub, as he has a right to be, but the bigger problem may be with those Republicans still on the fence about repudiating Trump. Pence was chosen in large part to reassure Republicans, to send a signal that Trump was surrounding himself with conservative advisors who could help him. Many Republicans are supporting Trump solely because of Pence’s place on the ticket. An open admission that Trump is actively ignoring the man who was supposed to be his most important hire and advisor is not going to sit well with a lot of people.

To be sure, Clinton had bad moments too (especially her comparison of herself to Abraham Lincoln), but overall they were not huge game-changers. But Trump’s snub of Mike Pence, and especially his lack of anything resembling sincere remorse, will come back to hurt him. The battle was close, but the election is still on track to be a resounding Clinton victory.

Expectations for the Vice-Presidential Debate

Tonight, Mike Pence and Tim Kaine will face off for their only debate of the general election. Historically, and for obvious reasons, the VP debates have earned fewer headlines and lower ratings than the main presidential debates, and this year the same should be doubly true. With such big names as Trump and Clinton choosing such low-key and, frankly, boring running mates, tonight’s debate will feel almost likely a disappointment sandwiched between the main events.

Still, the debate will be important in other ways. The Vice President has two constitutional duties—presiding over the Senate (which usually only entails voting to break a tie) and being prepared to take over the country upon the death, resignation, or impairment of the President. Compared to Clinton and Trump, who are known commodities to even the most low-information of low-information voters, Pence and Kaine might as well be “stereotypical Midwestern politician” and “that guy with the eyebrow”. Voters will need to know both of them can handle the Presidency, during what would undoubtedly be a turbulent time for the nation (even more so than it is now).

Neither Pence nor Kaine should have any problem doing that. Both are experienced politicians with executive experience who have been preparing for this moment for weeks. Elaine Quijano will likely throw out several Trump and Clinton-specific questions, asking Pence and Kaine to defend various remarks and explain various scandals, but the focus of the debate should be on the two men actually on stage.

For it to be a successful debate, she will need to get the candidates to prove that they are prepared to be President, and discuss what other roles, formal or informal, they would have in a Trump or Clinton administration. Save the questions on Trump University or the Clinton Foundation for Sunday night.

November Outlook (Part 3): The Governors

This is part three of a three-part series examining the 2016 Congressional and gubernatorial elections. For Part 1, go here. For Part 2, go here.

The twelve gubernatorial races, as usual, are the forgotten races of this presidential election. Unlike both the presidential race—America’s only true national election—and the races for House and Senate seats, which, though held within specific jurisdictions, have at least an indirect effect on the direction of the country as a whole, elections for governor are truly local. Furthermore, as the vast majority of gubernatorial races are held during midterm elections, those elections held in the shadow of the presidential contest often go nearly unnoticed by the national media.

Nevertheless, winners of the gubernatorial elections have just as much—if not more—of an influence over Americans’ everyday lives, particularly should the federal government begin to move toward the original, federalist model of the Constitution. And even in these truly local races, the effects of national debates can be seen, this year more than ever.

As generally happens in gubernatorial and other local races, both parties’ nominees are competitive in states not being seriously contested at the national level, and only three states can be considered safe for either party: Delaware, where Democratic nominee John Carney looks certain to succeed term-limited Governor Jack Markell; North Dakota, where state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem will succeed retiring Governor Jack Dalrymple; and Utah, where incumbent Gary Herbert is leading the Democratic nominee by an average of thirty points in polls.

That leaves nine states where the race for governor is either being actively contested, or where there is potential for an upset, based on individual candidate strength, a state’s overall partisan lean, or another factor. I’ll briefly summarize each of these below.

Missouri: With most polling resources being focused on the presidential and Senate races, there hasn’t been much data for any of the gubernatorial elections, but the most recent polling in Missouri seems to give Democratic nominee Chris Koster an edge over Republican Eric Greitens. The state has leaned Republican over the last decade, especially at the presidential level, but the closeness of the presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial contests in Missouri this year makes it an open question whether that trend is reversing, or if this is yet more evidence of the harm Donald Trump does to down-ballot Republican candidacies.

New Hampshire: A toss-up, pure and simple. An open seat in a swing state, this could go either way, especially since New Hampshire is the only state to have not yet held primaries. But if the polls are right and Hillary Clinton wins the state by a large margin, she could have a large coattail effect for the Democratic nominee.

Vermont: This should be an easy win for Sue Minter, the Democratic nominee, but just two years ago the incumbent Democratic governor won reelection with only 1.2% of the vote, narrowly beating his Republican opponent in one of the bluest states in the nation and likely contributing to his decision not to run for another term. That stunningly slim margin may have been unique to those candidates and that year, but Vermont—like many other states—has shown a willingness to vote for parties at the local level they would never support for Congress or the Presidency.

West Virginia: Yet another state that enjoys voting for different parties for state and federal office. Democratic nominee Jim Justice currently holds a small but stable polling lead over his Republican opponent, although in this case two factors may work in the Republican’s favor—the rapid trend away from Democrats in the state, over just the past decade; and, ironically, the presence of Donald Trump on the ticket, who is popular in the state and could create a coattail effect for Republican Bill Cole even should Trump lose nationally.

Indiana: This race was always going to be close, with Governor Mike Pence’s narrow victory in 2012 and tepid approval ratings. The Democrats renominated the man who kept the race so close in 2012, John Gregg, but Pence’s withdrawal from the race following his nomination as Vice President, and his replacement on the ballot by Eric Holcomb, complicates things even more. The polling currently indicates a tossup.

Oregon: Another close race, according to the latest polls. This is actually a special election, following Governor John Kitzhaber’s resignation in 2015, just three months after winning reelection. He won that race by five points, and his initial election in 2010 by just two points, increasing the likelihood of another close race this time around. Current Democratic governor Kate Brown will likely pull off a win, due to Oregon’s status as a blue state, Hillary Clinton’s place at the top of the ticket, and the talent of many Oregon Republicans for losing winnable elections, but it should end up being close.

Montana: There’s no current polling of Montana, so how the race stands now is anyone’s guess. But incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is seeking reelection in a red state, and that fact by itself makes the road for him more difficult. Add the fact that he won office in 2012 by just one percentage point, and it’s probable that this will be another close race—although the Republican nominee, businessman and activist Greg Gianfonte, was selected after several high-profile officials passed on the race, and Bullock will likely pull out a win in the end.

Washington: Incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee currently has a small but stable lead over Republican Bill Bryant, although several close statewide elections over the past few years—including Inslee’s own election in 2012—have proven that Democrats should take nothing for granted. Still, Inslee will likely succeed in winning another term.

North Carolina: Easily the most competitive, and most talked-about, gubernatorial race in the country this year, the lead has fluctuated for months. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee and state Attorney General, has led Governor Pat McCrory in the past five polls, although most of those leads have been within the margin of error. This is also the one gubernatorial race featuring a candidate who has shown himself to be a man of deep conservative principle, repeatedly standing up for policies he believed in even as others warned of a political price. Hopefully McCrory will emerge victorious to continue steering the state in a conservative direction.

So, to sum up: Most incumbents running for reelection, with the exception of McCrory, look likely to keep their jobs, although the margins in many of those elections will likely be a little too close for comfort. The rest of the races feature a variety of candidates little-known nationally, who will likely do little to change their states in any substantive way. A few governor’s mansions could flip parties, changing the national tally, although Republicans will almost certainly keep their historic majority.

Yet again a case of retaining the status quo, regardless of many individual outcomes—except for the election in North Carolina, a race featuring strong ideological contrasts in a season where such contests are exceedingly rare.

I'd Rather Have Mike Pence for VP, But...

…But I’d still rather vote for the Johnson-Weld ticket over Trump-Pence any day of the week.

No one can argue with any intellectual honesty that Bill Weld is more conservative than Mike Pence. On nearly every issue, from abortion and gun control to taxes, foreign policy, and the size of government, Pence is by far the more conservative of the two. Weld endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, praised Stephen Breyer and Merrick Garland as ideal Supreme Court justices in a recent interview, and has supported a number of liberal causes throughout his career. Even many in the Libertarian Party, both before and after his nomination, questioned whether he truly believed in a libertarian vision of government.

Mike Pence has his own flaws, to be sure. Most recently, and of most relevance to his potential service as Vice President, has been his repudiation of his own past statements and policy positions merely to earn the approval of Trump and his closest supporters. He has proven himself unwilling to stick up for his beliefs and for what he knows to be the right course of action, a key requirement for anyone wishing to serve as the Vice President of Donald Trump.

But comparing his flaws and policy positions with those of Bill Weld, Pence would still be the better, more reliable VP. If given the opportunity to vote separately for the next Vice President, I would choose the latter in a heartbeat.

Of course, that’s not the way national elections are conducted in America, and the top of the ticket has to be the prevailing concern. Considering the options put forth by the organized political parties, Gary Johnson is by far the best choice for the Presidency. Allowing the running mates of each nominee, candidates for an office which holds little formal constitutional authority, to significantly influence the choice between the nominees themselves, is foolish.

So I will happily vote for Bill Weld for Vice President, because every ticket is a package deal, and Gary Johnson would be an infinitely better President than Donald Trump.

Comparing The Nominees for Vice President

For all their perceived differences, Hillary Clinton and her donor-turned-general election opponent have shown similarity on a wide range of issues and personality traits. Now that comparison extends to their choice of running mates as well. Both have chosen boring, timid men afraid to overshadow or second-guess their arrogant running mates.

Tim Kaine is a prime example of a politician who stays popular only by avoiding a strong position on any controversial issue. He supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership two weeks ago, but came out strongly against it the day Clinton named him running mate. He claims to personally oppose abortion, but also opposes defunding Planned Parenthood, banning late-term abortions, and basically every other federal pro-life measure.

In short, he has made little meaningful impact in the Senate and has been a loyal foot soldier for the Democratic Party, silently supporting every major liberal proposal without taking firm, principled stances on anything.

Mike Pence, meanwhile, pledges allegiance to conservative doctrine but, similar to Kaine, has displayed no willingness to aggressively fight for his beliefs and values, instead showing a tendency to cave under pressure. The minute he was selected as Trump’s running mate he attempted to disavow his long record of support for free trade agreements and the Iraq War, as well as past criticism of Trump himself, in order to gain the VP nomination and extract himself from a difficult reelection fight.

In the House, when Pence had the ability to vote for conservative proposals but no occasion to face extreme outside pressure, his voting record was solidly on the Right. But as governor, he became less reliable, caving on Medicaid expansion and the state Religious Freedom Restoration Act, among other issues. And during the presidential primary he infamously gave Ted Cruz one of the weakest endorsements in history, while praising Trump and making it clear to everyone that, once again, he placed popularity above principle.

Neither Mike Pence nor Tim Kaine have shown much inclination over their careers to be principled leaders, but rather have placed a quest for popularity above all else. Neither has demonstrated a willingness to stand up to their respective running mates in the name of doing the right thing. Both are content to be trophy wives and see to it that their running mates’ every desire is carried out without question. The ideological integrity and resoluteness of Ted Cruz or Elizabeth Warren, or even Paul Ryan or Joe Biden, is sorely lacking in both Pence and Kaine.

To be clear: Were the roles reversed, I would happily vote for Mike Pence over nearly any Democrat. For all his flaws, he would be infinitely better than a Democratic candidate. But Pence as Trump’s sidekick does not make the latter any more fit for the Presidency, nor does Kaine as a potential Vice President make Hillary Clinton more palatable to conservative Republicans alienated by Trump.

Donald Trump Is Officially The Nominee

We’ve known it was coming for months, but that doesn’t make today any easier. Donald Trump is the official presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

The Republican Party has officially embraced a racist, corrupt, liberal fraud, all because 40% of the primary electorate—containing a large proportion of Democrats and independents—decided that they were so angry at the political establishment that they wanted someone who could stride into Washington like a conquering emperor and burn it all down.

Now they’ve gotten their wish, and the country will suffer for it.

Contrary to the delusions of many Trumpkins, the Orange One has almost no crossover appeal. Independents and minorities find his blatant racist and sexist comments to be nonstarters, and Democrats are almost uniformly opposed to his every utterance and policy proposal, erasing any doubts many have about supporting Hillary Clinton. What few moderates might be won over are easily outnumbered by the legions of conservatives and otherwise loyal Republicans who see Trump as inherently unfit for the Presidency.

Much like his running mate Mike Pence managed to do with his handling of the Indiana religious liberty bill in 2015, Trump has managed to alienate liberals and conservatives alike, only on a far greater scale. The two of them surely belong on a ticket together.

And if he somehow wins, Trump will surely erode the Constitutional guarantees of individual liberty and separation of powers. This is not just empty rhetoric, but part of his pitch to voters—he promises that, if elected, he will carry out his will be executive fiat, forcing Congress to go along with his demands and openly threatening them if they do not, and challenging the safeguards of the First, Fifth, and Tenth Amendments, among others.

At least he’s promised to leave Article Twelve alone.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Republican nominee for President of the United States.

Meanwhile, just look at who the Democrats are about to nominate, fresh off a grilling by the FBI director.

Scared yet?