Voting Has Officially Begun

Forty-six days before Election Day, presidential election voting has officially begun. Starting today, voters in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Vermont will be able to vote in-person at local election offices. (Several other states have already begun mailing absentee ballots.) From now on, a few more states will begin early voting every week, until two-thirds of the country will have begun voting by the last week in October. Some election analysts have estimated that at least 40% of voters will cast ballots before Election Day.

Meanwhile, Monday will see the first of three scheduled presidential debates.

There are many valid arguments for and against early voting, but one serious drawback few people discuss is that it essentially locks in a vote over a month before Election Day—this year, before three presidential debates, one vice-presidential debate, and who knows how many scandals and breaking news stories, any of which could affect a voter’s decision on whom to support.

One of the best and most recent illustrations of the dangers of early voting can be seen in the results of the Arizona GOP presidential primary. Marco Rubio, following his disastrous finish in the Florida primary on March 15, dropped out of the presidential race. But even though Arizona’s primary was held a week later, on March 22, because of early voting (which had started a month beforehand), Rubio still managed to earn just over 13% of the vote, or over 70,000 votes—not enough to change the overall results, but still a significant number of people who would presumably have rather voted for a candidate still in the race.

I’ve known for months exactly who I intend to vote for in this election, and at this point I can’t imagine anything changing my mind. But I’ll wait to cast my ballot until November 8, because—especially in this election—you never know what could happen, to change the calculus in an instant.