Is Populism Dead, Or Has It Already Won?

As everyone knows, 2016 was a banner year for populism in the West. Voters in the United Kingdom stunned the politicians, the polls, and the financial markets by voting to leave the European Union. Not six months later, across the Atlantic, American voters elected Donald Trump as the 45^th President, in what has been described as the greatest political upset in U.S. history. In between, nationalist (here I use the terms interchangeably) parties gained strength in many parts of Europe, including Austria, where a populist leader came tantalizingly close to winning the presidency, and Hungary, where voters overwhelmingly voted in favor of a referendum limiting immigration (though low turnout meant that the measure was not adopted).

But 2017 has so far seemed to be a year of setbacks for populist candidates. Geert Wilders’ party in the Netherlands had a disappointing finish in that country’s parliamentary elections. The main populist party in Germany seems to be struggling, as well. And, though Marine Le Pen made it to the runoff in the French presidential elections, the current polls suggest she will lose in a landslide (though that lead may be dwindling).

I’m not going to make any predictions about whether the polls are right and Le Pen will actually go down in embarrassing defeat. Last year’s presidential polls are still fresh in my mind. But the record already seems to suggest that populism has struggled to gain additional traction since the banner year of 2016.

Has it? Geert Wilders may not be the Dutch prime minister, but he remains a major player in Dutch politics, and his campaign forced the major parties to shift to the right and adopt some of his anti-Islam, anti-immigration arguments. A similar phenomenon has played out in Germany, where Angela Merkel is no longer nearly as pro-open borders and pro-immigration as she once was. And Le Pen is already set to turn in the best performance ever by a National Front politician in the presidential election, and her opponent’s lead, while still in double digits, is closing by the day.

Politicians across the West, even those who have campaigned most strenuously against the rise of populism, have gradually been forced by political reality to adopt a few of the populists’ key demands—greater national sovereignty, stricter immigration controls, and the like. Even the leadership of the European Union is now saying that they may back off some of their most strident calls for greater European integration, made in haste over the past few years. The twin blows of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump are still causing shockwaves through the system, shockwaves most noticeable in Europe.

They will recede in time, absent other populist victories, but for now the assorted nationalist movements across the West are gaining policy victories even without major triumphs at the ballot box. They may not have achieved total victory, but the assorted components of the current nationalist-populist movement are far from finished.