Changes Since 1992: West Virginia

Last week, I wrote about the rapid changes the state of Arkansas has undergone over the last two decades, shifting from a state in which Democrats could be expected to win virtually every statewide office, usually by double digits, into what is practically a different state altogether today—one in which Republicans now hold every statewide office, control a supermajority in the state legislature, and the GOP presidential candidate won 61% of the vote.

There is only one other state that has experienced a shift comparable to Arkansas’ over the same twenty-year period, and in the same direction. In the 1992 election, West Virginia voted for Bill Clinton by double digits, and Democrats had complete control of the Congressional delegation and nearly every other major elected office. Two decades later, similar to what happened in Arkansas, the roles of the two major parties in the state were reversed, and Republicans are now well on their way to becoming the dominant party.

The shift is still occurring at a different pace than that of Arkansas—Democrat Joe Manchin, who is pro-life, favors gun rights, and supports a constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment, won reelection to the Senate in 2012, and this year Democrat Jim Justice narrowly won a hard-fought gubernatorial race—while Donald Trump was carrying the state by more than forty points. But taken together, there is perhaps no better example of how Democrats have abandoned their former base of white, working class voters since Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign than the twin states of Arkansas and West Virginia.

Looking at the shift in presidential results, the similarity between Arkansas and West Virginia is immediately apparent—and even more notable in the case of the latter, which unlike Arkansas has had no major public figure run for president in recent elections.

1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
Clinton +13.0	Clinton +14.3	Bush +6.3	Bush +12.9	McCain +13.1	Romney +26.8	Trump +42.2

I want to head off the inevitable racism argument, which many people would use to explain both West Virginia and Arkansas, which saw some of the most dramatic surges toward Republicans during the Obama years. But even a cursory look at the topline results show such arguments are full of holes. Why, then, was there such a large shift toward Republicans in 2000, despite all-white tickets on both sides? Why did McCain, running in 2008 against the man who would become the first black president, have a margin of victory in West Virginia almost identical to that of George W. Bush in 2004? Why did Trump, running against a white woman, best Mitt Romney’s showing against that same black president by sixteen points?

The answer, watered down in the interest of space, is that in states like Arkansas and West Virginia there are essentially two Democratic parties—the national, liberal party, which runs people like John Kerry and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for president; and the more conservative state party, of which people like Senator Joe Manchin and incoming governor Jim Justice are a part. The state party can get away with nominating people who are, while not Tea Party Republicans, significantly to the right of the national party, and more to the middle of the political spectrum overall. They establish themselves as trusted, independent voices.

But ticket-splitting has also become more rare over time, which is why there is often a lag time between when a state begins voting for the opposite party in national and statewide elections, but eventually the two indicators will begin to line up once more. Democrats can still win the governorship in West Virginia—but they have to fight for it now. The right Democrat can still win a Senate seat in the state—but it is becoming increasingly difficult for even a moderate Democrat to win. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant ran for an open Senate seat in 2014 with this ad as a hallmark of her campaign—and still lost to Republican Shelley Moore Capito by twenty-seven points. In 1992, Democrats controlled the State House of Representatives 79-21. Republicans now control it 63-37.

The national Democratic Party has so fully embraced its liberal, anti-coal, regulatory image that voters in once reliably blue states are beginning to reflexively vote against anyone who has even a whiff of association with them. And if Democrats are going to change, they’d better hurry before voters’ opinions are baked in for a generation or more. The clock is ticking in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In Arkansas and West Virginia, it may already be too late.