Changes Since 1992: Virginia

So far, I’ve looked at changes in voter trends over time in three states, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. All three have, over the last twenty years, moved toward Republicans to some degree—Arkansas and West Virginia dramatically so, and Wisconsin at a much slower rate, voting Republican this year for the first time in a presidential election since 1984. But analyses of these three states don’t paint an accurate picture of the nation as a whole, because just as the white working class votes increasingly Republican, so too proceeds the solidification of minority voters behind the Democratic Party.

This opposite phenomenon, coupled with the Democrats’ increased reliance on urban professionals can be seen in Virginia, which has now broken with the rest of the South in voting Democrat in the last three presidential elections. Virginia was actually, decades ago, a trendsetter in voting Republican when much of the South was still avowedly true. Now, the opposite is occurring.

This shift began quite recently; though the Democratic ticket performed quite well in 1992 and 1996, its status as an all-Southern ticket (Clinton from Arkansas, and Gore from Tennessee) undoubtedly helped matters. And still, both George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole managed to carry the state even while losing convincingly across the country.

1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
Bush +4.4	Dole +1.9	Bush +8.1	Bush +8.2	Obama +6.3	Obama +3.0	Clinton +4.9

Obama’s margins in 2008 and 2012 closely mirrored his national margin of victory. But Hillary Clinton won the state by five points this year, even as she lost the Electoral College nationally and won the national popular vote by a little under two points.

Obviously, there is a huge caveat to the 2016 results—Clinton’s selection of Virginia Senator, and former Governor, Tim Kaine as her running mate. Nearly all national elections work this way—the home state results of the presidential and vice-presidential nominees can be skewed for an election cycle, and then return to a regular pattern the following cycle when home-state advantages disappear. But it should also be noted that Clinton was leading Trump in Virginia state polls by a substantial margin even before the announcement of her VP pick, and Obama also won the last two elections in the state by solid margins, despite having no similar advantage.

Meanwhile, election results from other state races are somewhat of a mixed bag. Control of the Congressional delegation has seesawed back and forth since 1992, with Republicans currently holding a 7-4 majority. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, although Mark Warner barely retained his seat in 2014 by a much closer than expected 0.8%. Gubernatorial results have also varied wildly, from  back-to-back, double-digit Republican wins in the 1990’s, to five-point Democratic victories during the Bush years, to Bob McDonnell’s 17-point margin, his subsequent fall following an ethics investigation, and Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 win. And in the state legislature, the state Senate is almost evenly split, though Republicans have a commanding advantage in the House of Representatives.

Overall, Virginia, like Wisconsin, is narrowly balanced. Neither party can yet afford to take the state for granted on any level. But while Wisconsin might now be considered a red-leaning purple state (to strain the political color metaphors), Virginia could now be classified as a blue-leaning purple state. A state where Republicans can still excel, especially at the state level, but Democrats, even liberals, are slowly in ascendance. Where the white working class of the Appalachians and center-state area is still a political force to be reckoned with, but are slowly being outnumbered by the urban and liberal suburban voters of Richmond and the D.C. outskirts. And Virginia Republicans will be forced to reckon with that fact even more in future elections, if the state is to remain competitive in the long run.