Trump Might Actually Win This Thing

For months I’ve said that it was a near certainty, with Trump’s nomination, that Hillary Clinton would be the 45^th President of the United States. I even wrote in July that, if I were advising Clinton, I would push for a true fifty-state strategy.

As Rick Perry might say, “Oops.”

The shift in the polls, both national and state, since last Friday—when James Comey dropped the bombshell that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Clinton’s private email server—has been remarkable. For a visual idea of the change, check out RealClearPolitics’ Electoral College predictions.

The race had already been tightening before Comey’s announcement, with Clinton’s lead nationally shrinking from as much as fifteen points in some polls to a closer five or six points, but this seemed like a natural effect as the race entered the final weeks and memory of the Access Hollywood tapes began to fade somewhat. The RCP average of state polls was also shifting slowly towards Trump.

And then the FBI story broke. In just the past week, eleven separate states have shifted towards Trump, some of them dramatically. Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, all long believed to be relatively safe for Clinton, seem to be up for grabs once more. In Virginia and New Hampshire, this week has been the first time Trump has led in state polls, ever. Georgia, Utah, Texas, and Missouri, all generally Republican states where Trump has struggled, seem to be coming home in the end. Maine, normally Democratic at the presidential level, seems to be becoming more competitive, and the same could be true of Michigan (only more polling will tell for sure, although the window for that is closing fast).

And unlike the few previous instances where Trump was rising and Clinton falling in the polls, the Democrats no longer have time to refocus attention on Trump's on failings and reset the race. The clock is about to strike midnight; the fat lady is about to sing.

The upshot is that Donald Trump could actually be President-elect this time next week. I still wouldn’t bet on it, but I would no longer bet against it, either. The bad news is that either Crooked or the Con Man will (likely) win; the good news is that one of them will lose. A silver lining to a likely dismal Election Night.