Donald Trump’s poll numbers are
historically bad, at all levels. In the last thirty major national polls, he
has led Hillary Clinton exactly three times—all of which came from Rasmussen,
one of the least accurate of the major forecasters. Several polls from the past
few weeks have shown him losing by double-digit margins. The number of voters who
see him unfavorably now consistently tops 60%, even worse than Clinton. No
candidate for the presidency has ever won with such atrocious numbers.
His polling at the state level, where
the campaign will ultimately be won, is if anything even worse. In Utah he sits
under 40% and holds only a single digit lead over Clinton, whereas McCain won
the state by almost thirty points and Romney by almost fifty. In Arizona, a
state the Republican presidential nominee has only lost once in the past sixty
years, Clinton is now narrowly ahead in the RealClearPolitics polling average
and the state is considered a tossup. Mississippi and Kansas, also staunchly
Republican states historically, could also be in play if the limited polling
conducted there so far bears out.
Meanwhile, in California, New York, and
Maryland, states Trump has promised to win, Clinton leads by fifteen,
thirty-three, and twenty-three respectively in the latest polls. All of this in
addition to Trump’s anemic fundraising and frequent shakeups in his campaign
staff. Word is that he has yet to set up any major operation in key states such
as Florida and Michigan.
So far Clinton has stuck to a
predictable course, targeting traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida.
But if Trump’s numbers continue to plummet, she will likely begin to pursue a
more aggressive strategy, campaigning in Republican strongholds in order to
both help herself and capitalize on Trump’s position as de facto leader of the
GOP to further aid down-ticket Democrats. A Fifty State Strategy would be the
ultimate endgame.
Trump and the RNC would be forced to
expend resources in states they never expected to need to defend. The Senate,
already in play, would become a sure loss for Republicans. The House would be
increasingly at risk, as districts which generally lean Republican would swing
away from the party of Trump and toward the Democrats. Governorships, state
legislatures, and attorneys general would begin to fall as well. And Clinton
would cement her own legacy by achieving the overwhelming, historic victory in
both the popular vote and Electoral College that her husband, for all his
talent and charisma, could never attain.
She almost certainly wouldn’t win every
state. Not even Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1972, or Reagan in 1984 were able to
achieve that. But she could keep many solidly red states close, capture enough
outright to make her victory one of historic proportions, and lay the
groundwork for future liberal successes across the country. Turning states like
Texas and Kansas blue, long a Democrat dream, could become reality.
At this point, barring some sudden
extraordinary, miraculous turnaround in Trump’s numbers, only one thing can
stop this nightmare scenario for conservatives from coming to pass. It’s up to
the delegates in Cleveland to stop the Fifty State Strategy from ever
occurring, by nominating a strong candidate able to unite the GOP and win
against Hillary in November.
#FreeTheDelegates
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