Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Will Ted Cruz Endorse Donald Trump?


Ted Cruz has a big decision to make. As the last major candidate to stand against Trump in the primaries (apart from Kasich, who mainly just acted as a spoiler), there will be increasing pressure on him, even more than others, to support the nominee against Hillary Clinton. By this point, two months after he suspended his presidential campaign, it’s clear Cruz is not just taking a break from electoral politics in general. He’s been active in endorsing and campaigning with other candidates across the country, most recently throwing his support behind Darryl Glenn in Colorado and Marco Rubio’s reelection in Florida. But the silence on endorsing Trump is becoming increasingly significant.

It speaks to Cruz’s character and strength of his principles to hold out even this long. There are a few fellow GOP senators who are avowedly #NeverTrump, but they are neither former primary opponents of the likely nominee, nor actively pursuing another presidential run in the near future. As the current rumblings point toward another Cruz run for the White House in 2020, following his 2018 Senate reelection bid, the pressure will be on from the RNC, Republican leadership in Congress, and many GOP voters to get behind the nominee this cycle if he wants any future in national elected office.

I think the best path forward for Cruz, with regard to Trump, is to continue to hold out on an endorsement until the convention. There is still the possibility, however remote, that the delegates will choose someone else as the nominee—maybe even Cruz himself, as many of those same delegates are personally loyal to him. Either way, the fact that there won’t be an official nominee until the middle of July gives Cruz some breathing room politically, and an effective cover in interviews in which the subject of a Trump endorsement is sure to come up.

After the convention, assuming Trump is the nominee, the pressure to support him will grow far more intense. Everything he said about Cruz, from the Lyin’ Ted smears to the attacks on his father and wife, will be ignored by party leadership and voters alike who merely want to present a united front against the Democrats for the general election. The need to win will for many people outweigh both principle and loyalty to one’s family, and Cruz will have to walk an increasingly fine line.

At some point after the convention, Cruz will likely need to offer some kind of pro forma endorsement of Trump. This, I think, is the best way of balancing his integrity and political future: By giving Trump his formal support, however half-hearted, Cruz neutralizes much of the later attacks he would otherwise endure from leadership and ordinary voters alike, who would at least partly blame his refusal to support the nominee for his eventual loss, and hence for the Clinton presidency that followed.

At the same time, by waiting until after the convention, and only giving a tepid, formal endorsement without much actual campaign assistance, Cruz reserves the loyalty of the many #NeverTrumpers he won over during the primary, and whose support he will need as much as that of Trump voters for a future presidential run.

Obviously, there are dangers of alienating members of both sides in walking such a thin line. I personally supported Cruz throughout the primary, and would love to see him take a bold stand against Trump, electoral future be damned. But Ted Cruz is not a man we can afford to lose, and if a pro forma endorsement of Trump is the price we have to pay for a future Cruz White House, then it’s a disappointment I would be happy to endure. After all, we already know what he really thinks of Donald Trump.

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