What's Next for the Gorsuch Nomination

At this point, I defy anyone to find a single conservative, or even a single Republican, who is not fully supportive of the idea of Neil Gorsuch sitting on the Supreme Court. His nomination may have largely divided Democrats and Republicans, but within the Republican Party it has been extraordinarily unifying, doing much to heal divisions still remaining after 2016.

That being said, even with a narrow Republican majority in the Senate, and as of this writing all GOP Senators supportive of the nominee, there’s no question that the confirmation battle will be rough, with Democrats testing Gorsuch far more than Republicans ever did with either of Obama’s Supreme Court nominees. Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed 68-31, and her confirmation process took a little over two months. Elena Kagan was confirmed the next year by a vote of 63-37, roughly three months after being nominated. My sense right now is that Gorsuch will be confirmed with between 56 and 58 votes, including between four and six Democrats in favor, though every single Democratic “aye” vote will be a hard-fought victory.

Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has said that he would like to see Gorsuch confirmed by Easter, giving the Senate a six-week timeframe to complete hearings, receive papers and questionnaires, and hold votes. This would be significantly faster than previous nominees and I don’t think they will ultimately make the cutoff, but it is a good benchmark to shoot for.

There is also a reason for increased speed this time. Whereas the last two vacancies occurred during summer recess, while the Court was out of session, they are now beginning to hear cases for the spring term. The faster Gorsuch can be confirmed, the faster he can begin deciding cases, which both gives Republicans extra incentive to speed the process, and Democrats extra reason to slow down the nomination, even if they are ultimately unsuccessful at derailing it altogether.

Hearings have not yet been scheduled, although if Grassley hopes to meet his self-imposed Easter deadline they will have to begin within the next couple weeks. In the runup to those hearings, I’ll be taking a closer look at some of the judicial issues likely to face Gorsuch, both as questions during confirmation and in real-life cases once he is ultimately confirmed. Some of these issues, such as Roe v. Wade and religious freedom, are fairly well-known, while others, like the judicial principle of stare decisis, are more obscure, but all could ultimately have a significant impact on the future of the country.