Looking Ahead with the Libertarian Party

The 2016 presidential election presented a golden opportunity for the Libertarian Party, even more than other third and minor parties, to become a major force in American politics. Both the Democrats and Republicans nominated truly awful candidates, despised by both independents and large numbers of liberals and conservatives in the party bases. Mistrust of the federal government in general, and specifically insider politics as practiced by members of both parties, was historically high. The time seemed ripe for a third-party disruption, and the Libertarians, as the largest third party with an existing infrastructure and ballot access in all fifty states, seemed the ones to do it.

And then they blew it by nominating Gary Johnson, he of “What’s Aleppo?” fame, who was given several opportunities to make a sizable impact and even came close to reaching the 15% polling benchmark necessary to appear on the general debate stage, but never seemed presidential or serious enough to earn the votes of the many who were convinced that voting third-party would merely constitute a “wasted vote”. To earn those votes, the Libertarians needed a fresh face that appealed to the broader electorate, and an aging ex-governor most people had never heard of, who reminded many of a crazy, if good-natured, uncle, was not the vehicle they needed.

In the end, Gary Johnson received just over 3% of the national vote. In down-ballot races, the party’s best showing came in the Alaska Senate race, where Joe Miller, a conservative former Republican with high name recognition in the state, earned over 20% of the vote against moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski. There is currently one Libertarian state legislator, a Nebraska state senator who switched from the Republican Party following Donald Trump’s nomination.

So, what now? Libertarians must now figure out how to define themselves over the next four years of a Trump presidency, which will be both a challenge and an opportunity. Democrats will obviously be the major opposition party, but as the main liberal party in America, conservative voices of dissent against Trump’s policies will not often be welcome there. Libertarians therefore have a chance that would not have been available had Clinton been elected president, with Republicans united against her—the chance to gain support from conservatives opposed to some of Trump’s more liberal leanings. His proposed major infrastructure bill, for instance—something being embraced by many Democrats, taken seriously by many moderate and establishment-oriented Republicans, and viewed with trepidation by conservatives—offers an opportunity for Libertarians to gain a significant foothold within the GOP and begin gaining high-profile, strategic supporters.

Of course, this assumes the party at large actually begins thinking strategically and wants to win, something it has demonstrated itself incapable of in the recent past. But the opportunities for political triangulation and further growth are there, if the party has the collective will to seize them.