Political Effects of Puerto Rican Statehood

A couple weeks ago, I wrote about the results of Puerto Rico’s latest statehood referendum, and how residents of the island should have the final say on whether or not they become the fifty-first state. It was outside the scope of that post to discuss the effects that a bid for statehood would have on national politics, but I wanted to briefly address some of those political considerations here.

The greatest effect that Puerto Rican statehood would have on national politics would be in two areas—Congressional representation and the number of votes in the Electoral College. The population of the island, which currently stands at a little over 3.4 million according to the latest Census Bureau estimates, would presumably entitle the hypothetical state to either four or five U.S. representatives (when all states are ranked by population, Puerto Rico lands between Iowa, with four representatives, and Connecticut, with five). It would also receive two U.S. senators and, depending on the exact size of its congressional delegation, either six or seven electoral votes.

The most immediate result of statehood would be the reallocation of congressional seats. Whereas there is no statutory limit on the total membership of the U.S. Senate (or, for that matter, the number of votes in the Electoral College, which currently stands at 538), there is currently a cap on voting members of the House, set at 435. Unless Congress decided to raise that limit, or do away with it altogether (which wouldn’t be advisable, for practical reasons), several states would automatically lose a member of Congress to make way for Puerto Rico. As noted by the author of the Hill article linked above, the states most at risk, based on the 2010 redistricting process, would be California, Florida, Minnesota, Texas, and Washington.

Of course, which specific districts in those states would be consolidated, and how the maps would be redrawn, would be anyone’s guess until the process actually occurred. But it is a certainty that none of those states would take the prospect of losing congressional representation particularly well.

The partisan makeup of the new state’s congressional delegation—as well as the island’s partisan tendencies in presidential elections—would be the other major question with regard to the political effects of statehood. Here as well, those effects are difficult to predict. Puerto Ricans in the United States are known for their tendency to vote Democratic, but island politics are more often based around local parties such as the PNP and PPD. Many politicians also choose to affiliate themselves with the mainline Democratic and Republican parties, and based on this Democrats would start out with a significant advantage in island-wide elections, as well as in many of the new congressional districts (currently, the governor and all three nonvoting representatives in Congress are Democrats). But several Republican-affiliated candidates have also found success in recent years, at both the gubernatorial level and in races for the several at-large seats in the legislature, indicating that the island would couldn’t be counted on to vote as a heavily partisan block.

In short, none of the very real effects of admitting Puerto Rico as the fifty-first state can be known for sure, until that day comes (if it ever does). But two things are a certainty: the substantive impact on national politics will be both noticeable and permanent, and that impact will be sure to become a key factor in any debate over the formal admittance of Puerto Rico into the Union.

Policy Spotlight: Redistricting

The political gerrymandering of congressional districts has been in the news in a big way recently, as the Supreme Court recently agreed to hear arguments in a case concerning whether Wisconsin’s legislative map unconstitutionally deprives Democratic voters of equal representation, dividing them into various majority-Republican districts and weakening their clout in federal elections.

National Democrats are understandably hoping that a Supreme Court decision holding that Democratic voters have been disenfranchised will lead to Republican-drawn congressional maps across the country being overturned and redrawn. If that were to happen in time for the 2018 elections, Democrats could then become more competitive in congressional races across the country, increasing their chances of retaking a majority in the House without having to do the heavy lifting of campaigning for votes or convincing the voters to support their policy goals.

But some state Democrats in liberal strongholds are hoping for a different outcome. Nationwide, the vast majority of state legislatures are controlled by Republicans, meaning that arguments against gerrymandering are more likely to affect maps favorable to the GOP. But in states such as Maryland, the reverse is true, with blatantly partisan maps serving to shut out Republican candidates for congressional seats. If you thought the Wisconsin district map was gerrymandered, take a look at the Maryland map adopted by state Democrats.

It is obvious, and should be expected, that partisan state legislatures will attempt to draw maps favorable to one political party over the other. Neither party is inherently more honest on the subject, which is why an alternative to the partisan maps must be found and adopted across the country. A few states use independent commissions to redraw congressional boundaries after each census, but since both parties are reluctant to give up one of the great benefits of controlling state legislatures, the practice is far from widespread. Another possibility would be an automatic referendum on proposed maps, which would in theory encourage legislatures to keep the influence of partisan politics to a minimum.

Whatever the answer, it is clear that something must change in how we draw congressional boundaries. What should be a nonpartisan and fairly technical task has become increasingly infused with the worst of party politics, and both sides bear some responsibility.

Maryland Democrats Admit To Disenfranchising Republicans

Out of Maryland comes a rare case of politicians being completely honest about their intentions—to get more members of their own party elected to office, at the expense of disenfranchising voters with whom they disagree.

Several leading Democrats in the state, including former governor Martin O’Malley and speaker of the House of Delegates Mike Busch, gave sworn depositions in relation to a lawsuit alleging that the state’s 2011 redistricting was designed specifically to maximize Democratic representation in the state’s congressional delegation, while minimizing the influence of Republican voters. Taking even a brief look at the current boundaries of Maryland’s congressional districts, it is impossible to see how anything else could be the case—and now, those in charge of the redistricting process have admitted that fact.

The current lawsuit focuses on the Sixth Congressional District in western Maryland, which was gerrymandered to elect a Democrat in what would normally be a deep red area of the state. But what goes largely unmentioned in the current media coverage is that the entirety of the Maryland congressional map was twisted in a blatant display of partisanship, to elect as many Democrats to Congress as possible.

Without a doubt, the region most harmed by the current map is Anne Arundel County, in the center of the state. The county, home to such major drivers of job creation as the state capital, BWI international airport, NSA headquarters, and Fort Meade army base, is split into no less than four separate Congressional districts, and not a single congressman calls Anne Arundel home.

The reason is simple: the county in general leans Republican, with a large number of voters identifying as Independent, and if it were contained within a single district, any Democrat running for office could not be guaranteed success.

Hopefully, the court will recognize what those of us who live and vote in Maryland have long known to be true—that the entire congressional map was created to serve the political interests of a single party, and to ensure citizens' equal representation, the process of drawing congressional boundaries in the state must start from scratch.