Summer In Trump's Washington

Summers in Washington, D.C. are hot and humid. Particularly in August, it becomes easy to remember that two centuries ago, the city was literally built in a swamp, which was drained to make way for the new capital. Donald Trump’s campaign cry, perhaps unwittingly, mirrors the call of late eighteenth-century construction workers.

Heat and humidity can make people both lazy and irritable, and it seems like that is shaping up to be a perfect reflection of the mood inside D.C., as the first summer of the presidency of Donald Trump slowly progresses. Lazy, in that nothing much continues to happen in terms of fulfilling major campaign promises such as Obamacare repeal and tax reform. And irritable, in the sense of continuing investigations into collusion with the Russians (some justified, to be sure), and marches of “the Resistance.”

Something major could always change, just as the heat and humidity can give way to sudden thunderstorms and flash floods, but as of now it seems unlikely. The status quo will probably continue through the summer, with much sniping and little being accomplished. Such is the standard in modern Washington, and this summer looks set to exacerbate the trend.

Evaluating Trump, 100 Days In

I’ve never been a fan of the narrative, espoused by so many in the media, that the “first one hundred days” of a President’s term is in any way meaningful or an accurate reflection on the success of his presidency. Is it fair to judge a President as a failure for not achieving anything of significance in the first hundred days, but instead using that time to negotiate and plan, and set up a great milestone on day 150? The entire concept reeks more of liberal FDR-worship than any meaningful attempt to quantify the success of a presidency.

That being said, Trump has now been in office for just over 100 days, and now’s as good a time as any to check in on his successes and failures—remembering that a lot can still happen in the 3 ½ years left in his term.

Unfortunately for Trump, the two highlights of his first hundred days that first come to mind are the travel ban (suspended by a federal judge on legal grounds) and the Obamacare replacement bill (pulled from the floor due to lack of votes, though negotiations are ongoing). Though many will disagree with me, I had little concern with either the original or revised travel ban orders (though implementation was a different matter entirely), and the suspension is really not Trump’s fault. The Obamacare bill, on the other hand, was terrible from the beginning, and blame for that debacle must rest with the President at least partially, for embracing it so fully, rushing the process, and attempting to bully conservative skeptics into taking his side.

Those have been perhaps the most high-profile events of Trump’s time in office so far, and it would be easy to write a summary of his first hundred days focusing entirely on those two misfires. But to do so would not be fair to Trump or his administration, and ignore several conservative policy successes. Let us not forget that on his first weekend in office, Trump restored the Mexico City Policy, barring federal funding of groups that promote abortions internationally (such as the International Planned Parenthood Federation). He has assumed a tougher posture in dealings with North Korea, Syria, Iran, and (surprisingly) Russia than Barack Obama ever did, and backed up talk with action. And his recently released preliminary budget is everything Obama’s attempts weren’t: namely, fiscally sane and small government-friendly.

When Trump said during the campaign that he would “surround himself with good people”, I and others mocked him and wondered how much he would actually listen to those “good people”. But he has, in fact, surrounded himself with a truly stellar Cabinet and military advisors (I have my differences with a couple, but on the whole a conservative could not hope for a more knowledgeable and principled group of people), and just as surprising seems to actually be listening to them, at least most of the time.

President Trump still has a ways to go, but overall his time in office is off to a promising start. If he keeps the momentum going, signs an Obamacare replacement bill that actually repeals Obamacare, and maybe tones down the tweets just a bit (I say that reluctantly; I’ve come to enjoy reading them), he’ll have the makings of a great first year.

The Return of Obamacare Repeal

On Monday, I wrote about how it seemed like Paul Ryan and Donald Trump were running up the white flag on repealing Obamacare. Now it seems like Congressional leadership is retreating from their earlier assertions that the Affordable Care Act is here to stay:

But by Tuesday morning, Republicans appeared to have regrouped, and Ryan stressed the GOP conference would continue to work toward gaining consensus on a replacement plan even as they tackle other legislative priorities.

“We’re going to get this right,” Ryan said, “and in the meantime, we’re going to do all the other work we came here to do.”

…

According to The New York Times, the House Freedom Caucus and centrist Tuesday Group are engaging in talks with Stephen Bannon, President Donald Trump’s top strategist.

Paul Ryan made a big mistake on the original Obamacare “repeal” bill, no question. But to his credit, he seems to have put that failure behind him, and by all accounts is resisting calls for sanctions against the Freedom Caucus, choosing instead to engage and work directly with him. One can’t help but wonder what John Boehner’s response would have been, were he still Speaker.

President Trump, are you paying attention? This is how things get done, not through ultimatums or angry Twitter outbursts.

Now let’s get to it, and get a bill that actually repeals Obamacare.

A Real Obamacare Repeal Bill

Now this is what I call a full repeal.

Alabama Representative Mo Brooks—who is, perhaps obviously, a member of the Freedom Caucus—has introduced a one-sentence bill that actually repeals Obamacare in its entirety. (What a novel idea.) The text of the bill is as follows: “Effective as of December 31, 2017, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Public Law 111–148) is repealed, and the provisions of law amended or repealed by such Act are restored or revived as if such Act had not been enacted.”

When Republican congressional candidates promised a full repeal, over and over again, over the past seven years, I have to believe this is what many voters imagined. It’s certainly what I imagined. No tinkering around the edges, no replacement of one government mandate with another. Just a simple, straight-up repeal.

To be perfectly honest, a one-line repeal may no longer be feasible, even if it were to pass. Implementation has likely gone too far by this point, and the 2015 repeal bill (which is considerably longer) would be the best bet at this stage. But Rep. Brooks’ bill deserves debate, and a vote.

Congress: Do what you were elected to do. Repeal Obamacare. That’s all we ask.

What's Next for the Obamacare Debate

On Friday, House Republican leadership, acting on the behest of President Trump, pulled the awful American Health Care Act from consideration, only minutes before a scheduled vote.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Speaker Ryan, Trump, and the rest of leadership now seem to be running up the white flag on Obamacare repeal. Trump: “I’m glad I got it out of the way.” Ryan: “Obamacare is the law of the land…for the foreseeable future.”

Are you kidding me? They spend seven years campaigning for full repeal. They promise millions of voters that if their party just controlled the House of Representatives, Obamacare could be repealed. Then they just needed the Senate. Then, of course, once they had the Senate, Congress was no good unless they had the presidency as well. And now, after only two months and one half-baked, terrible bill that succeeded in uniting moderates, conservatives and Democrats in opposition, they’re giving up?

I don’t think so. Not if we have anything to say about it. The solution is simple: just pass the same damn bill Congress sent to President Obama in 2015. Don’t worry about the replacement for right now. Just repeal the mandates, repeal the taxes, repeal the regulations. Do what was literally the one thing every single member of the Republican conference was elected to do over the past four election cycles.

Go back to the drawing board. Talk to members. Lead. And repeal Obamacare, in full. Because if a solidly Republican Congress, working with a Republican president, can’t even achieve their single signature promise, then having a GOP majority isn’t worth a bucket of spit. And that, rather than actually keeping a core campaign promise, will be the one thing that could actually cost Republicans the majority in 2018.

Grading President Trump's First Fifty Days

Ever since FDR’s famous (or infamous) “First Hundred Days”, filled with the rapid implementation of dozens of new government programs in response to the Great Depression, the first three months in office for a new president has been seen as critical for setting the tone of the rest of his tenure. The Daily Signal has a good recap of the major actions President Trump has taken so far here, as well as comparing them to his promises on the campaign trail.

Overall, if I were a Trump voter who agreed with every one of his campaign promises, I would be enormously pleased with the record so far. As it is, I am, quite frankly, surprised that Trump has shown as much commitment as he has to fulfilling campaign pledges. As I said many times during the campaign, one of my major issues with Trump was that he simply hadn’t given voters any reason to believe that he would actually follow through on many of his more conservative proposals—securing the border, for instance, or pushing to defund Planned Parenthood—based on his history.

But in areas of policy, Trump has actually stayed remarkably consistent. And, he has actually surrounded himself with many good people—Jeff Sessions and Betsy DeVos, to name two—despite the mocking of that particular claim by myself and others during the campaign.

Of course, he’s had some missteps and done things I disagree with, some quite strongly—embracing Obamacare Lite being only the latest example. And his Twitter feed is another matter entirely.

But on the substance, I would have to give Trump a solid B for his first fifty days in office. May his presidency have many more such days, without the missteps (both overblown and real) which have plagued the administration thus far.

A Repeal and Replace Plan That Works

For more than six years, the one constant in every single Republican campaign was a promise to repeal Obamacare. Presidential candidates said it. Prospective senators and congressmen said it. Gubernatorial candidates, too, said that if elected they would do everything in their power to fight the Affordable Care Act’s many encroachments on state power. Given the chance, even Republican mayors and county councilmen would loudly proclaim how opposed they were to Obama’s signature legislative achievement.

In return, Republicans were given the House in 2010. They were given the Senate in 2014, and, against all odds, the White House in 2016. And what do they do with their newfound power to finally repeal and replace Obamacare, a day many believed would never come?

They introduce the American Health Care Act, a bill whose first sentence begins, “the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act… is amended.” A fitting summary of the contents of the bill.

The individual mandate is repealed—and replaced with a new mandate, a requirement for insurance companies to charge extra those who allow their insurance to lapse. Such a measure is just more government overreach, and of doubtful constitutionality.

Medicaid is reformed—but not until 2020. And those reforms are clumsy and unnecessarily complicated, far short of the simple block grant program that many have argued for.

Some taxes are repealed—but others are kept, including the ridiculous Cadillac tax on “deluxe” health plans.

And the Independent Payment Advisory Boards, or “death panels”, remain in place.

Without a doubt, this is better than the current Obamacare framework. But it should not be enough for Congress to merely pass a bill where the best thing that can be said about it is that it is better than a disaster. We can and must do better.

The first step should be to repeal Obamacare outright. Ideally, this would consist of a one-sentence bill: “The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is hereby repealed.” Unfortunately, such a bill would have been feasible only in the early years following the ACA’s initial passage. Measures have already been implemented that cannot be easily taken away without disrupting the lives of millions.

Instead, Congress can merely repeal the individual and employer mandates, taxes, and all other assorted regulations, along with halting all further Medicaid expansion. Repeal, too, the requirement that insurance companies must allow young adults to stay on their parents’ plans until age 26. Whether there would be some kind of staggered end to this provision, or a grandfather clause, could be up for discussion and debate.

Don’t worry about anything else in the repeal legislation. Stop Medicaid expansion, but don’t reform the program just yet. Don’t worry about the familiar cries of “But what will you replace it with?” The American health care system circa 2009 may not have been ideal, but there weren’t hordes of starving people dying in the streets. And the gap between the end of Obamacare and the beginning of a new kind of health care system need not be long, because Republicans could already be working on a replacement while the repeal bill was passed and implemented.

That replacement bill, that vision of a new health care system, would be radically different from both Obamacare and House leadership’s own proposal. It would put the marketplace and the individual first by offering true choice and competition, and eliminating all government mandates. It would dramatically expand Health Savings Accounts, far more than the AHCA proposes, and allow insurance companies to compete across state lines. It would address badly-needed tort reform head on. All of these are classical GOP beliefs on health care policy that, somewhat surprisingly, get little mention in the tepid proposal put forth by Congressional leadership.

Yes, Speaker Ryan and the rest say that additional legislation will be forthcoming, once the AHCA has been passed. But given the milquetoast nature of that proposal, coupled with leadership’s long history of proclaiming their intent to “fight another day”, how likely does it seem that radical health care reform legislation is imminent?

Because that is exactly what we need: radical reform. Reform that places individual choice, not government coercion, at the forefront of the health care policy debate. Accordingly, the American Health Care Act should represent the opening salvo of negotiations, not a final product.

Great Expectations

Senate Republicans have officially taken the first formal step to repealing Obamacare, approving a budget resolution that lays the groundwork for a later vote on full repeal.

This is, obviously, a good thing. I can think of no campaign pledge more defining for Republican candidates over the past six years than the promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, and being handed all the levers of power in the federal government and then failing to follow through would be an unforgiveable betrayal of the voters. And while I understand Rand Paul’s concerns about cutting spending, the chance to repeal Obamacare is one that is too important to conflate with any other issue, even something as important as federal spending. With Obamacare repeal, speed is key.

And yet repeal is only the first item on a lengthy wish list conservatives have for the new Republican government. Tax reform, approving the Keystone pipeline, cutting spending, instituting Congressional term limits, securing the border, guaranteeing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court for decades to come… The list goes on and on, and has had Republicans practically drooling for months. In just four years, the thinking goes, we can make it as if Barack Obama’s presidency never even happened.

But those big dreams seem to forget one of the biggest lessons of President Obama’s tenure: Many, indeed most, Republicans in positions of power in Washington are not as committed to sweeping changes as they claim to be on the stump. Republican and conservative goals do not always align. And many candidates who talk big about eliminating departments and slashing the national debt change their tune once in office.

This may seem like an obvious statement of fact to many, just over a year after John Boehner was forced to give up the Speakership. But for others, the headiness of unexpected Republican victory will cause memories to quickly fade. The draw of belonging to a team, especially a winning team, is strong, and it will be easy for many who proudly proclaimed their loyalty to principle during the Obama years to set those principles aside for greater personal power.

Personally, I expect Obamacare to be repealed. The promise to do so was so firm, was repeated so often, that it would now be suicidal not to. Whether it will be fully eliminated is another issue; the few popular provisions of the law, combined with the way other portions have already permanently altered the health-care industry, make the single-line repeal, “The Affordable Care Act of 2010 is hereby repealed,” of conservative dreams all but impossible.

On other issues, voters would do well to control their expectations. In four years, we will have the same number of federal departments as we do now. Federal spending will still be going up, though the rate of that increase may slow—hardly an achievement to get excited about. Keystone may be approved, if it is not already too late, and tax reform may pass, though it will be nothing like the flat tax of an ideal world. And there will be no federal term limits amendment passed by Congress.

I hope I’m wrong. Everything on the conservative wish list is possible. A radical pivot back to Constitutional basics could happen. But Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump are not the men to lead that charge. A more reasonable, and still hopeful, expectation for the next four years is for a competent administration and Congress to limit what new damage the federal government can cause, while laying the groundwork for a future President and Congress to more aggressively shrink the government back within Constitutional boundaries.