I Just Donated to Cruz for Senate

As I’ve said previously, the election for the United States Senate in Texas could easily be the most important election of the 2018 midterms. Liberals and moderate Republicans alike will be gunning for Ted Cruz, one of the few people in Congress today unafraid to stand for conservative principles. Democrats will do all they can to expand the map and take down a sitting Republican senator, particularly one as high-profile as Cruz. Republican leadership may not actively work against Cruz’s reelection bid, but neither are they likely to campaign hard on his behalf, or shed more than crocodile tears should he lose. And the president, of course, is not likely to forget Cruz’s epic stand against him at the RNC last summer, regardless of the fact that Cruz eventually gave him his endorsement toward the end of the campaign.

All of this means that the Cruz campaign will be depending on the support of grassroots voters even more than an ordinary Senate campaign.

I don’t make many political donations, but I just gave to the Cruz for Senate campaign. I hope you’ll consider doing the same.

Thanks To Trump, 2018 Is Now Anyone's Guess

On paper, 2018 should be a banner year for Republicans. Following the solid Democratic years of 2006 and 2012, Senate Democrats are overextended in red states, to a point rarely seen in modern partisan politics. Democrats in Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri are all up for reelection—all states that went for Donald Trump in 2016 by double digit margins. Winning seats in just those five states (while successfully defending the eight seats they hold that are up for reelection) should put Republicans within reach of a filibuster-proof majority. Winning elections in those states, plus in even a few of the swing states that Trump won by single-digit margins, would give the GOP its first legislative supermajority in the Senate in nearly a century.

The gubernatorial map is more difficult, mainly because whereas the Senate class up for reelection next year comes off two successive elections that solidly favored Democrats, the governors up for reelection were elected and reelected in the Republican waves of 2010 and 2014. Additionally, many more governors than senators will be leaving office next year, leading to more open seats that will make it easier for the opposition party to post victories. Still, it should not be impossible for Republican governors nationally to hold their own in terms of total numbers.

But all this, of course, ignores the Trump effect. Maps and data were next to useless in 2016, and their effectiveness will not likely improve with President Trump in office. Despite the convention wisdom about midterm elections being uniformly bad for the party in power, that outcome is not foreordained. Republicans made gains in Congress in 2002, and Democrats broke even in 1998. If Republicans are successful at leading a unified government, voters will reward them.

So far, of course, they haven’t been, due again to the Trump effect. The administration currently lurches from one crisis to the next, with no clear plan for enacting any sort of ambitious reform agenda. The government elected in 2016 has certainly not been a status quo government, but neither has it been one to deliver many meaningful results.

We are now faced with a reversal in hopes from the 2016 election. Republicans now hope that the maps and data are correct, and count on the “Great Red Wall” of the South and West. Democrats, meanwhile, hope for grassroots anger to defy the odds and retake Congress. Whichever party ends up being right, the outcome of 2018 largely depends on the President and his administration getting their act together.

Cruz vs. O'Rourke: The Match Is Set

Unofficially, at least. According to media reports, Rep Joaquin Castro will not run for the Texas Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz, who is up for reelection next year.

This is good news for Cruz. Castro is in general far more well-known and respected in Texas, both within the Democratic Party and among the broader electorate, than Beto O’Rourke, the congressman who has already announced a challenge to Cruz. Castro also has a reputation for being more moderate in style and an independent thinker (not that this should be mistaken for actual political moderation), which would serve him well in a run for statewide office, and is seen as a rising star in the national party, which would have given him greater support from outside the state than O’Rourke can likely expect.

O’Rourke is certainly not a challenger to take lightly, as I wrote previously. But he has established himself as a fairly generic liberal Democrat in Congress, will have to work hard just to increase his name recognition, cannot count on a massive influx of out-of-state donations and support for his bid that Cruz can and Castro likely could have, and—as a white male—will not generate the same sort of enthusiasm from some on the identity politics-obsessed Left.

Ted Cruz will still have to worry about many things between now and next November—O’Rourke’s challenge in the general election, the national political climate, and the potential of a primary challenge from the party establishment chief among them. But with Castro passing on the race, Cruz’s life has been made a little easier.

Pro-Lifers Banned From The Democratic Party

Everyone knows that the modern Democratic Party is radically pro-abortion, but I never thought they would actually say this:

Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez became the first head of the party to demand ideological purity on abortion rights, promising Friday to support only Democratic candidates who back a woman’s right to choose.

“Every Democrat, like every American, should support a woman’s right to make her own choices about her body and her health,” Perez said in a statement. “That is not negotiable and should not change city by city or state by state.”

“At a time when women’s rights are under assault from the White House, the Republican Congress, and in states across the country,” he added, “we must speak up for this principle as loudly as ever and with one voice.”

To my knowledge, this is the first time in recent history that the leader of a major political party in America has demanded absolute conformity on a political issue from all members of that party. Sure, certain groups of people have been barred from parties before, or at least been discouraged from showing active support—racists and white nationalists come to mind. No self-respecting political party wants to be seen as a home for such people. But on policy issues such as abortion, parties usually encourage diverse coalitions as a means of growing their brand and expanding voter outreach.

Obviously, Perez’s comments cater to the core of the Democratic liberal base. But outside of an extremely narrow group of voters, it’s hard to see how this does anything but hurt the party at large, as it gears up for midterm elections where it hopes to make significant gains in Congress. Even many pro-choice Democrats recognize the importance of building coalitions with pro-life, but otherwise liberal, voters. Even Nancy Pelosi recognizes this fact.

According to polls, 28% of Democrats can reasonably be classified as pro-life. That figure includes some Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2018, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Senators vital to any Democratic hopes of regaining control of the Senate. Will the DNC continue to support their re-election bids?

A final note: Some may say that the Republican Party, and conservatives specifically, have long made pro-choicers feel equally unwelcome. But this is a false equivalency. There are many pro-choice Republicans prominent in the party today, such as Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Have they been the target of ire and primary challenges from the Right? Absolutely, much of it well deserved. But no respectable figure has ever demanded that they leave the party altogether. Primary challenges are robust and healthy for a party and a movement. Attempts to silence dissenting views altogether and impose conformity by degree are not. But no one should expect any more from the modern progressive movement.

Ted Cruz Gets A Challenger

Today, Ted Cruz gets his first official Democratic opponent in next year’s Texas senatorial race. Beto O’Rourke, a Congressman representing Texas’ 16^th district, has formally declared his intention to challenge Cruz’s bid for a second term.

About the best that can be said for O’Rourke’s nascent campaign is that, as a sitting member of Congress, he is a more serious candidate than others Democrats have nominated for statewide office in Texas in recent years. Which isn’t exactly saying much. And, if he does end up being the nominee (several others are reportedly also looking at a run), he will likely do better in a head-to head matchup than Wendy Davis.

And that’s all the good that can be said about him. To say that O’Rourke is a poor fit for Texas statewide office is an understatement. His voting record and public statements paint him as a fairly generic liberal Democrat—opposed to gun rights, enforcement of federal immigration law, and just about every other issue that has won at the ballot box in Texas over the past quarter century. He took part in the Democrats’ Congressional sit-in last summer. He won his congressional seat in 2012 by primarying a sitting member for not being liberal enough, and Hillary Clinton won the district by double digits in 2016—while losing the state by ten points. The sixteenth district is generally rated “Safe Democrat”, and O’Rourke didn’t even face a Republican opponent in last year’s election.

Ted Cruz is without question the better member of Congress, and should be the favorite to beat O’Rourke. But, all that being said, it would be a sore mistake to ignore the race as a sideshow. Democrats—and establishment Republicans—will be looking to make an example of Cruz for never failing to stand strong for conservative principles, and O’Rourke will undoubtedly rake in cash and endorsements from across the country.

For all that is good, we must keep Ted Cruz in the Senate. No matter what, the Texas Senate race will be one of the most important of 2018.

Thoughts on the New DNC Chair

Democrats on Saturday elected a new party chair, former Labor Secretary Tom Perez.

A lot was made of the battle for the chairmanship between Perez and Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison as being crucial to the Democratic Party’s future, especially heading into a tough midterm election. Personally, I think Perez’s election will turn out to be less consequential than most people are saying. After all, how many people outside of politics really know, or care, who the DNC chair is? Or the chair of the RNC, for that matter?

There was also little in the way of substance to distinguish Perez and Ellison, as far as major policy issues. The basic differences came down to personality and how much the Democrats would oppose Trump: push for impeachment, or merely block legislation and nominees at almost every turn. In that respect, Perez was the moderate, although both are so far out of the American mainstream that the word really ceases to have any meaning.

Many Republicans, myself included, were hoping Ellison would be victorious due to his abrasive personality and scandal-filled personal life—including his past anti-Israel and anti-Semitic remarks, his affiliation with the Nation of Islam, and his flirtations with 9/11 trutherism. But Perez, in a show of party unity, quickly appointed Ellison as deputy chairman following his victory. The Democratic Party never fails to disappoint.

This election, by itself, will not swing any Congressional races in 2018. It will not make Donald Trump’s reelection in 2020 any more or less likely. But what it does do is show just out of touch and far out of the mainstream national Democrats continue to be. And that is the core challenge the party will have to face in the years ahead.

We Must Re-elect Ted Cruz At All Costs

As politicians are fond of saying, the next election is never more than two years away. And now, before the 45^th president has even been inaugurated, mere days after the 115^th Congress has been sworn in, speculation is already beginning about the 2018 midterms, when Republicans will have an historic opportunity to expand their Senate majority.

But as every grassroots conservative knows by now, having a simple Republican majority is by no means a guarantee of good legislation, or any serious effort in Congress to shrink the national debt or the size of government. Character still matters, even today, and the quality and commitment to Constitutional principles of candidates for office matter more than whether that candidate has an (R) next to their name.

In an ideal world, I would not be writing a post in support of Ted Cruz’s Senate reelection, because it would be Ted Cruz, not Donald Trump, preparing to take the oath of office as the next President. But here we are. And so, as much as it pains me to think about the next national election so soon after 2016, I have to, because ensuring that Ted Cruz wins a second term in the Senate will be the single most important battle for conservatives, across the country, over the next two years.

Cruz has been such a prominent and vocal defender of conservative principles during his first term that it would be impossible to give a comprehensive list of all the issues on which he has led the way in Congress, from government spending to Internet freedom to defense of the unborn. Cruz’s friend Senator Mike Lee of Utah is the only other member of the Senate who rivals him in his commitment to conservative values. But Lee is more comfortable out of the spotlight of national politics, whereas Cruz seems to relish his notoriety in the media and among liberals. Together they make a formidable team.

Texas is a red state, but liberals and moderate Republicans alike will seek to make an example of Cruz in an attempt to stifle other strong conservative voices within the GOP—the former by seeking to recruit strong general election candidates who disguise their liberalism well, and the latter by recruiting an establishment Republican to challenge Cruz in the primary. In early polling, Cruz looks like a solid favorite to win both the primary and general elections, against several potential candidates, all of whom are either little-known or little-liked. But the election is still over a year away, and much can change.

That’s why conservatives need to be focused on this race now, supporting the Cruz campaign financially if they are able, promoting the candidate to anyone they may know who is a registered Texas voter, and otherwise supporting his candidacy. The 2018 Texas Senate race will be the single most important Senate election of the year, and indeed the most important in several cycles.

I’ve had my differences with Cruz, mainly with regard to tactics. I applauded his bold decision not to endorse Trump at the RNC, and was then disappointed when he reversed course several months later. I disagreed with how he embraced Trump so fervently early on in the primary, clearly hoping to win over the latter’s supporters when their candidate inevitably faded away. But none of that changes the fact that it is vitally important that Ted Cruz win another term in the Senate. That is where he is needed, now more than ever.

Come 2019, Republicans Could Be Looking at a Filibuster-Proof Majority

After the way my 2016 predictions went, I’m in no hurry to begin making predictions about 2018. But that being said, Senate Republicans could be looking at a majority of upwards of sixty seats—a number never-before achieved by the GOP in the chamber, rarely achieved by the Democrats, and one which would allow Republican bills and nominees alike to pass easily against unified Democratic opposition.

Five Democrats will be up for reelection in states Donald Trump won by double digits. Another is in a state (Ohio) Trump won by a solid single-digit margin. And another seven are in states Trump either won narrowly (such as Florida and Pennsylvania) or lost narrowly (Virginia).

By comparison, only two Republican senators are in states even remotely competitive—Dean Heller in Nevada and Jeff Flake in Arizona. Both, as of right now, are reasonably popular in their states. Trump won Arizona narrowly, and lost Nevada by only a couple of points.

None of this is to say that Republicans will definitely gain the eight seats necessary to have a filibuster-proof majority when the 116^th Congress convenes. Republicans typically do better in midterm elections, but the incumbent President’s party also usually suffers—as we saw in 2010 and 2014. It is also far to know which Senators, from both parties, are running for reelection. Defending an open seat is usually much harder than defending an incumbent with high name recognition and legislative accomplishments. And, circumstances could change dramatically over the next two years, making Republican seats in Tennessee, Texas, or Utah unexpectedly come into play. In 2012, Republicans were certain of picking up seats in Missouri and North Dakota, and both stayed blue in the end.

But, given what we know now, GOP gains of some sort are likely, with two or three seats being the conservative estimate. That much I feel confident predicting (though not which two or three seats will flip.) And if the next two years are successful, and Trump voters feel validated, then the Senate could become a bastion of one-party rule seen only rarely in its history.

Whether that’s a good thing, regardless of the party in charge, is a discussion for another day.